If Obama wins New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia, he will win Re-election and will be the President of the United States. Therefore, Ohio's state government willful destruction of votes, and Florida's willful suppression of early voting becomes totally irrelevant. All of the schemes to suppress and roll back voters ability to do their civic duty will be for naught.
So what is the formula that brings President Obama's victory? Look back to Bush - Gore in 2000. The map looks exactly the same, with one sole exception: New Hampshire and Nevada. If Gore had won New Hampshire and Nevada, the Florida fiasco would be irrelevant and he would have been the President of the United States. Now in 2012 Nevada leans for the President, and New Hampshire is a toss up state.
My prediction? President Obama 276 Governor Romney 262.